I hate casino gambling. It seems strange to say this considering how much time I spend talking about gambling in general, but it’s absolutely true. I have walked by Melbourne’s Crown Casino on a near daily basis and am still confused by what would make someone go in there and place a bet. It is a mathematically certain losing proposition.
Over the short term, anything is possible. However, ALL table games are negative expected value bets. For example, a player who knows how to play perfect blackjack is giving up a 1% edge to the house with every wager. For every dollar bet, in the long run, he or she is essentially giving the casino two cents. The math is simple, a gambler places a $1 bet and has a 49% chance of receiving $2 from the house and a 51% chance of losing the initial $1 altogether. Multiplying 49% times $2 results in $.98 - the expected value of this theoretical wager. Since the gambler is receiving less than their initial bet, this is considered a negative expected value (-EV) wager. Any good gambler eschews -EV bets and tries to find situations to get their money in with positive expected value (+EV). Not all +EV bets will win, but in the long term, focusing on +EV wagers is what makes money - it’s this logic that ensures casino profitability.
Expecting to make money playing the house at table games plays purely to emotion. Any table game player is quite literally saying, “The laws of probability have been suspended for me and me alone.” Take a look at any nice casino and the amount of money that is put in to constructing and maintaining it. That kind of cash flow is not generated by giving money away, it’s made by fools giving money to the casino by believing they can beat the house at their own game. They can’t.
Now for one of my non sequitors. I was two years out of college when my ex-roommate, Jerry (names have been changed to protect the stupid), called me on the phone.
“What’s up, you stinky bitch?” That was Jerry’s way of saying he missed me and had been thinking about me.
I laughed, “Nothing, Jerry.” I looked over at my girlfriend, sitting on my couch trying to convey without saying anything, “Hey, Jerry’s on the phone and we rarely talk. I’m going to be a few minutes.”
Julie caught my look and shot me a look that said, “No worries, take your time.”
Jerry got down to business. “Guess where you’re going for Spring Break?”
“Dude, I’m not in school anymore.”
“I don’t want to hear it! You’re going to Cabo. All the guys are in.”
Julie, of course, could only hear one side of this conversation. I pulled the phone away from my mouth and looked at my girl. “Hey! We’re going to Cabo - all the guys are in.”
Julie looked up. “Cabo, sweet!” she said.
Jerry began screaming at me on the other end. “Whoa, whoa, whoa! I said all the GUYS are in. What the fuck do you think you’re doing?”
“I’m asking Julie if she wants to go. She’s in.”
“Why are you bringing a girl on this trip? It’s like bringing sand to the beach! She’s going to hold you back and you’re not going to be able to go out and party with us.”
“Are you even listening to yourself? First of all, you’ve met her. She’s way more social than I am. If anything, she’ll be dragging me out and keeping me out later than I would if I weren’t with her. She’s fun and she’s not going to ‘ruin’ anyone’s good time.”
“Bros before hoes, dude. Bros before hoes. This is so weak. Are you that whipped?”
“Again. I like her. She’s my girlfriend. There’s no one I would rather go to Cabo with and that includes all of you knuckleheads. I like you guys, but here’s the deal. Either she goes or I don’t go.”
“I’m going to have to talk to the guys about this.”
“Fine. I’m not going anywhere she’s not welcome.”
We hung up. Again, Julie only heard one side of the conversation and she was angry.
“That’s bullshit!”
“I understand that you’re upset. When Jerry was first going on about ‘bringing sand to the beach’, I was upset too. Now I’m not angry, I feel bad for him and all the guys.”
“Why would you feel sorry for those losers?”
“Their idea of a girlfriend is someone that brings you down and makes you stay at home and watch reruns on TV instead of going out and having fun. Their idea of a girlfriend is a wet blanket and that’s exactly what they’re going to wind up with if they don’t start dating people that are more compatible with them. I wasn’t putting on a show for you on the phone. If you weren’t the first person that popped in my mind when I thought of taking a week off of work and going someplace fun, then we shouldn’t be together. That’s how I feel and if those idiots don’t come around to the idea that there are cool women out there, then we can find something else to do.”
The guys eventually came around and decided Julie could come so long as we got separate rooms - not much of a deterrent. That’s how she got to spend one week in Cabo with myself and four of my idiot friends from Northwestern as the lone girl. For as much bellyaching and grief I got for insisting she come with, by the second day, the guys were happy to have her there. By the middle of the week, she had become the standard for what those guys were looking for in a girl.
Towards the end of the week; Julie, the guys, and I were walking back from the beach in the afternoon. For the life of me, I can’t remember why Julie and I started fighting. Julie stormed off and the local construction workers started heckling me. I redirected my anger at them and let out a torrent of Spanish swear words. My friends were taken aback by both my proficiency in swearing in Spanish and Julie’s exit. They went back to their room to clean up.
A few hours later, I was sitting in front of a fire. Julie was sitting in my lap with her arms around my neck. The last time Jerry had seen us, we were fighting. He approached us gingerly and motioned for me to come over to him. I gently pushed Julie off of me and walked over.
“Dude, are you alright?”
“I could use a beer, but other than that, I’m great.”
“I mean, what’s going on with you and Julie. I thought you guys were done.”
I laughed. I had already forgotten about the last time they saw us together. “Look, I did or said something stupid, she was a little over sensitive. I was not sensitive enough. It was a stupid fight. Common sense kicked in and we realized we could spend the next couple of days fighting or having a good time. I said I was sorry. She said she was sorry and we’re going to enjoy the rest of the trip.”
Jerry looked at me as if I were speaking in tongues. “Just like that, everything is back to normal?”
“If you want, I could ask her to be super bitchy and make life hell for me and uncomfortable for all of you, but I prefer it this way.”
Again, I was completely shocked by Jerry’s interpretation of relationships. Julie and I are two different people. We have a lot in common and we are a good couple, but that doesn’t mean that we always agree about everything. Back to my earlier example, I feel like our relationship is +EV. Every moment isn’t perfect, but over the long run it provides more happiness, fulfillment, and fun than the bad times. Every minute spent with Julie is far more likely to be a good memory than a bad one.
Surprisingly, not many people use the concept of expected value in their interpersonal relationships. I have seen couples that are absolutely miserable together that seem determined to not get therapy and change their relationship or even get divorced and find a more suitable partner. They except that they make each other miserable and proceed to make each other miserable in every way possible every day. It makes about as much sense as expecting to win in blackjack.
I have had a lot of conversations over the last couple of weeks regarding the ability for people to change. I don’t expect anyone to change and am rather cynical about people’s ability to change. Most people certainly will not change to make me happy. I simply have to accept people for who they are and understand that, for the most part, knowing them will be a +EV relationship, or sever ties with the person as I expect the odds of them changing are about the same as a casino changing the rules of blackjack to make it more favorable for the player than the house.
Over the short term, anything is possible. However, ALL table games are negative expected value bets. For example, a player who knows how to play perfect blackjack is giving up a 1% edge to the house with every wager. For every dollar bet, in the long run, he or she is essentially giving the casino two cents. The math is simple, a gambler places a $1 bet and has a 49% chance of receiving $2 from the house and a 51% chance of losing the initial $1 altogether. Multiplying 49% times $2 results in $.98 - the expected value of this theoretical wager. Since the gambler is receiving less than their initial bet, this is considered a negative expected value (-EV) wager. Any good gambler eschews -EV bets and tries to find situations to get their money in with positive expected value (+EV). Not all +EV bets will win, but in the long term, focusing on +EV wagers is what makes money - it’s this logic that ensures casino profitability.
Expecting to make money playing the house at table games plays purely to emotion. Any table game player is quite literally saying, “The laws of probability have been suspended for me and me alone.” Take a look at any nice casino and the amount of money that is put in to constructing and maintaining it. That kind of cash flow is not generated by giving money away, it’s made by fools giving money to the casino by believing they can beat the house at their own game. They can’t.
Now for one of my non sequitors. I was two years out of college when my ex-roommate, Jerry (names have been changed to protect the stupid), called me on the phone.
“What’s up, you stinky bitch?” That was Jerry’s way of saying he missed me and had been thinking about me.
I laughed, “Nothing, Jerry.” I looked over at my girlfriend, sitting on my couch trying to convey without saying anything, “Hey, Jerry’s on the phone and we rarely talk. I’m going to be a few minutes.”
Julie caught my look and shot me a look that said, “No worries, take your time.”
Jerry got down to business. “Guess where you’re going for Spring Break?”
“Dude, I’m not in school anymore.”
“I don’t want to hear it! You’re going to Cabo. All the guys are in.”
Julie, of course, could only hear one side of this conversation. I pulled the phone away from my mouth and looked at my girl. “Hey! We’re going to Cabo - all the guys are in.”
Julie looked up. “Cabo, sweet!” she said.
Jerry began screaming at me on the other end. “Whoa, whoa, whoa! I said all the GUYS are in. What the fuck do you think you’re doing?”
“I’m asking Julie if she wants to go. She’s in.”
“Why are you bringing a girl on this trip? It’s like bringing sand to the beach! She’s going to hold you back and you’re not going to be able to go out and party with us.”
“Are you even listening to yourself? First of all, you’ve met her. She’s way more social than I am. If anything, she’ll be dragging me out and keeping me out later than I would if I weren’t with her. She’s fun and she’s not going to ‘ruin’ anyone’s good time.”
“Bros before hoes, dude. Bros before hoes. This is so weak. Are you that whipped?”
“Again. I like her. She’s my girlfriend. There’s no one I would rather go to Cabo with and that includes all of you knuckleheads. I like you guys, but here’s the deal. Either she goes or I don’t go.”
“I’m going to have to talk to the guys about this.”
“Fine. I’m not going anywhere she’s not welcome.”
We hung up. Again, Julie only heard one side of the conversation and she was angry.
“That’s bullshit!”
“I understand that you’re upset. When Jerry was first going on about ‘bringing sand to the beach’, I was upset too. Now I’m not angry, I feel bad for him and all the guys.”
“Why would you feel sorry for those losers?”
“Their idea of a girlfriend is someone that brings you down and makes you stay at home and watch reruns on TV instead of going out and having fun. Their idea of a girlfriend is a wet blanket and that’s exactly what they’re going to wind up with if they don’t start dating people that are more compatible with them. I wasn’t putting on a show for you on the phone. If you weren’t the first person that popped in my mind when I thought of taking a week off of work and going someplace fun, then we shouldn’t be together. That’s how I feel and if those idiots don’t come around to the idea that there are cool women out there, then we can find something else to do.”
The guys eventually came around and decided Julie could come so long as we got separate rooms - not much of a deterrent. That’s how she got to spend one week in Cabo with myself and four of my idiot friends from Northwestern as the lone girl. For as much bellyaching and grief I got for insisting she come with, by the second day, the guys were happy to have her there. By the middle of the week, she had become the standard for what those guys were looking for in a girl.
Towards the end of the week; Julie, the guys, and I were walking back from the beach in the afternoon. For the life of me, I can’t remember why Julie and I started fighting. Julie stormed off and the local construction workers started heckling me. I redirected my anger at them and let out a torrent of Spanish swear words. My friends were taken aback by both my proficiency in swearing in Spanish and Julie’s exit. They went back to their room to clean up.
A few hours later, I was sitting in front of a fire. Julie was sitting in my lap with her arms around my neck. The last time Jerry had seen us, we were fighting. He approached us gingerly and motioned for me to come over to him. I gently pushed Julie off of me and walked over.
“Dude, are you alright?”
“I could use a beer, but other than that, I’m great.”
“I mean, what’s going on with you and Julie. I thought you guys were done.”
I laughed. I had already forgotten about the last time they saw us together. “Look, I did or said something stupid, she was a little over sensitive. I was not sensitive enough. It was a stupid fight. Common sense kicked in and we realized we could spend the next couple of days fighting or having a good time. I said I was sorry. She said she was sorry and we’re going to enjoy the rest of the trip.”
Jerry looked at me as if I were speaking in tongues. “Just like that, everything is back to normal?”
“If you want, I could ask her to be super bitchy and make life hell for me and uncomfortable for all of you, but I prefer it this way.”
Again, I was completely shocked by Jerry’s interpretation of relationships. Julie and I are two different people. We have a lot in common and we are a good couple, but that doesn’t mean that we always agree about everything. Back to my earlier example, I feel like our relationship is +EV. Every moment isn’t perfect, but over the long run it provides more happiness, fulfillment, and fun than the bad times. Every minute spent with Julie is far more likely to be a good memory than a bad one.
Surprisingly, not many people use the concept of expected value in their interpersonal relationships. I have seen couples that are absolutely miserable together that seem determined to not get therapy and change their relationship or even get divorced and find a more suitable partner. They except that they make each other miserable and proceed to make each other miserable in every way possible every day. It makes about as much sense as expecting to win in blackjack.
I have had a lot of conversations over the last couple of weeks regarding the ability for people to change. I don’t expect anyone to change and am rather cynical about people’s ability to change. Most people certainly will not change to make me happy. I simply have to accept people for who they are and understand that, for the most part, knowing them will be a +EV relationship, or sever ties with the person as I expect the odds of them changing are about the same as a casino changing the rules of blackjack to make it more favorable for the player than the house.
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