A Tale of Two Combines

It physically pains me to admit this publicly, but Tom Brady has been one of the top two quarterbacks in the NFL over the past twelve years. Over that period of time, he has taken his team to six Super Bowls - winning four of them, been named to eight Pro Bowls, won the AFL MVP twice, set a single season record for touchdown passes, and won the comeback player of the year award after tearing his ACL. For all of his accomplishments, it might be easy to forget that he was once an unheralded sixth round pick by the Patriots back in 2000 who was very lucky to make the team.

For some inexplicable reason, I wound up looking up his combine stats and was shocked by how horrible they were. In fact, I commented to a friend and he claimed I was exaggerating and demanded a source. Well, according to the good folks at nflcombineresults.com (http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=4732), it looks like I am not the only guy over 6’3” who cannot dunk a basketball. Brady’s vertical leap is a laughable 24” and he ran the 40 yard dash in a pathetic 5.28 seconds. Fast forward just a few years where the combine is broadcast on ESPN and I am wondering if Brady would have even been picked in the sixth round.

This is a real picture of Tom Brady. In today's combine, he would probably never even get a chance to play. Players hoping to be drafted best show up in the best shape of their lives.

 Scouts and coaching staffs spend months preparing for the draft and are very much influenced by the results of the Combine. Yet in the case of Tom Brady, his horrible combine results are easily overlooked because he is a Hall of Fame quarterback.

Combine apologists will say that, when evaluating young talent, the Combine is important because it shows dedication and work ethic. By saying this, it is almost as though the apologist is admitting that it fails to predict which players will help to - I don’t know, actually win games. Yet if this is the best argument for the Combine. That being said, let’s take a look at Seattle’s Russell Wilson.

Well, Russell Wilson looks like an athlete when he showed up for the NFL Combine 3 years ago. Too bad he wasn't 6'5" as he would have been a top pick.

If the Combine is a predictor of his work ethic, then Wilson should have been tapped for certain success. His vertical, at 35”, is almost a foot higher than Brady’s. His 4.55 40 yard dash time is blindingly fast, and yet… He was a third round pick because he is “short” (actually, 5’11” is slightly above average height). It seems that even though he excelled at every arbitrary test of athleticism which should indicate a strong work ethic and willingness to prepare, he failed at being tall. It seems NFL coaches and scouts want their quarterbacks to be at least 6’3”. The thought is that they need height to be able to see over their linemen, ironically, all of which who are over 6’5”.

So, the Combine would arbitrarily exclude a future Hall of Famer like Tom Brady. He is slow and can’t jump, but he can win games. Those that say that the Combine demonstrates work ethic should have been blown away by Russell Wilson’s performance, and yet he was a third round pick for being “short”. The only thing I think the Combine is actually good for is for ESPN to fill time for a few days and give people something to talk about. it has been shown that luck and not preparedness has been the biggest factor in building a successful team:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/